Treasury Yields Rise

Published April 11, 2025

Treasury yields rose early in the week as investors evaluated the latest economic data, showing inflation improved from a month ago. Yields continued to climb later in the week following reports of an increase in unemployment claims, although the claims remained below levels that would signal a recession.  

On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of dozens of everyday consumer goods, decreased 0.1% in March, lower than economists’ growth forecast of 0.1%. The year-over-year CPI rose to 2.4% in March, down from 2.8% in February and below economists’ projections of 2.6%.

“Today’s softer than expected CPI release feels backward looking given the large changes to trade policy seen in recent days,” said global Co-Head of Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Kay Haigh. “Going forward the Fed is likely to face a difficult trade-off as tariff driven price increases start to feed through to the inflation data and activity remains soft.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of April 7 at 4.01% and traded as high as 4.52% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.42% and traded as high as 5.02% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment increased by 4,000 to 223,000 for the week ending April 5. The reported claims were below analysts’ expectations of 225,000. Continuing claims fell by 43,000 to 1.85 million.

"While the employment picture in the United States is still strong, there are some worrisome signs,” said a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, Alex Beene to Newsweek. “There are an increasingly higher number of Americans staying unemployed for longer, and the reasons for that stem from better paying full-time work being harder to find in some areas of the country and difficulty finding other opportunities that allow them to balance existing responsibilities, be it child care, health care issues or other personal aspects outside the workplace."

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of April 7 at 4.49% while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.87%.